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12222 Kentucky Derby Event Information

John Velazquez gave Code of Honor every possible chance, saving ground on the turn, but he could only manage to get up for third.

Using underneath. I see many similarities between this guy and Haikal, yet one difference is that Win Win Win might be half the price of that horse. Another superfecta possibility.

His female family is more dirt-oriented, as his dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 Rampart winner One Caroline. He came off the layoff in the second division of the Rebel, meeting the vastly improved Omaha Beach. Despite a slow start and wide trip, Game Winner appeared to have a good chance to reel in that rival coming off the far turn. The pair drew away from the rest of the field by over 8 lengths, and Game Winner could never forge past Omaha Beach.

Baffert brought him back to California to contest the Santa Anita Derby and he was once again dispatched as an odds-on favorite. Yet this time it was his own stablemate Roadster who proved to be the thorn in his side. Game Winner was contesting the lead while racing three to four wide throughout, whereas Roadster sat off that early duel, saving ground on the rail. According to Trakus figures, Game Winner traveled 38 more feet than Roadster, and 69 more feet than third-place finisher Instagrand. That was not the fastest prep race that we witnessed, but he performed admirably relative to his rivals — better than any speed figure can convey.

Since then, he appears to have stepped forward in his training. I loved his final workout on April 26, a seven-furlong drill in over a dead Santa Anita surface. Game Winner has never been the flashiest work horse in the morning, but he put away his workmate under minimal encouragement and galloped out with serious power. I have never doubted his ability to get this distance, since there is nothing but stamina breeding on the bottom side of his pedigree. The three Baffert runners are difficult to separate, but everything appears to be coming together for this colt at the right time.

The reigning champion has lost some battles along the way, but I believe he will win the war.

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The selection. Roadster has never been a speed-crazy horse, but he showed a new dimension last time, rating well off the pace and dropping back on the far turn before launching a furious stretch bid. He displayed the turn of foot of a turf horse approaching the quarter pole, as he got back into the race in the blink of an eye.

Yet, that apparent skill is also what concerns me. Roadster does not strike me as a true classic distance type. Mike Smith gave this horse the kind of ride that only a Hall of Famer can orchestrate in the Santa Anita Derby, and Florent Geroux just does not possess that same level of finesse. A cut below the top contenders. Unfortunately, he could not replicate that feat in the Arkansas Derby. He hit the front sooner than expected as the leaders backed up and just seemed to get a bit leg-weary in the final furlong. I find the Louisiana Derby difficult to place in context of the other preps.

However, his pedigree suggests that he will ultimately be best going a mile, and I got that feeling watching his last race. He faces a difficult task from this outside slot. His Early Rating is the lowest in the field and his Late Rating is the highest. How many horses he is able to pass will depend entirely on how fast the leaders go. This maiden figures to be a serious pace presence from this outside post position, potentially filling a void left by Omaha Beach.

Yet it would be a massive shock if he were around at the finish.

A formula predicted the past 4 Kentucky Derby winners. How about 2018?

So does Johnny V,so I will put him in there too. Omaha Beach is not a far reach either. Like Like. You are commenting using your WordPress. You are commenting using your Google account. You are commenting using your Twitter account. You are commenting using your Facebook account. Notify me of new comments via email. Notify me of new posts via email. Skip to content.

Speed in 'Prep' Races Is One Indicator, Favorites Also Fare Well; Pioneerof the Nile Can Fly

Like this: Like Loading He likes to stalk from just a few lengths off the pace and doesn't figure to be able to keep up. His presence in the race makes little sense other than the fact he has the points to qualify. Consistent stretch-running son of red-hot sire Uncle Mo, who has three sons in the race. Trainer Tom Amoss wins at a torrid 32 percent clip 22 percent in stakes races. This horse could walk into a wall in an open field. Favored in the Louisiana Derby, he wound up fourth, in trouble along the rail in the stretch.

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  4. Fans keep making excuses and betting him, but he still has never reached a Beyer Speed Figure of 90, which should just about eliminate him from contention immediately. His pedigree and class ratings are also low. Nothing about this horse says he is ready to make an impact.

    The Maiden runner nearly stole the Wood Memorial with a flying charge up the rail at odds of on a muddy surface that favored closers. His Beyer Speed Figure of 93 for the race was 19 points higher than his prior best. He has competed in tough California maiden heats, but believers should be doing a rain dance. The Japan-based gray runner is by leading sire Tapit out of a mare by the Kentucky Derby winner Sunday Silence, who single-handedly revitalized Japanese breeding.

    This runner went to his knees when the gate opened and still recovered to win impressively.

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    Who else works five furlongs in a creeping one minute, six seconds and calls it perfect? Lani seems up against it, but Japanese horses have been on the rise on the world stage. Bred for class and stamina. He has finished second in two graded stakes races in Louisiana despite troubled trips. He gave up a clear lead to Mo Tom in the Lecomte. His record does not inspire confidence, nor do his short-striding gallops this past week at Churchill Downs. Trainer Dallas Stewart finished second with Golden Soul at odds of in the Derby and second the following year with Commanding Curve at The price figures to be similar, and Tom's Ready finished ahead of a nice horse in Dazzling Gem when he took second in the Louisiana Derby.

    He rallies from nearer to the pace than the deep closers, so he could be teasing when turning for home. Whitmore consistently produced a strong late run in all three prep races in Arkansas. He has tremendous presence on the track and his body language shows an unmistakable self-regard. Whitmore submitted after ranging up to challenge Cupid in the Rebel Stakes on March 19 and then loomed menacingly in the Arkansas Derby before again settling for a minor award.

    He only has two wins that came sprinting, and despite running two of his preps on tracks that favored closers, he still could not get the job done. Top-class breeding by sire Bernardini and the female family of Hollywood Starlet G1 winner Habibti and long-winded multiple stakes winner Eldaafer.

    How to Pick a Derby Winner - WSJ

    Shagaf won his first three starts for top trainer Chad Brown before finishing fifth on a sloppy track in the Wood Memorial. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. The rider switches now to My Man Sam for the Derby. Shagaf looks like the second-stringer in the barn and is probably being pushed into this race.

    Tech Startup Correctly Predicts Kentucky Derby Exacta

    Danzing Candy turned in a stunning gate-to-wire victory in the San Felipe Stakes over Mor Spirit and Exaggerator, two of the top contenders in this field, on a Santa Anita course that favored closers. He has natural speed to clear a field within a quarter-mile and has Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith. Danzing Candy's performance in the subsequent Santa Anita Derby was a disaster. He led by three lengths after a half-mile on a sloppy track and disintegrated. His sire, Twirling Candy, is a potent producer of off-track runners, so his loss in the Santa Anita Derby suggests he may have distance limitations.

    Horses rarely bounce back to win the Kentucky Derby off of poor efforts. After being bumped at the start, Destin set the stakes and track record in winning the Tampa Bay Derby, earning a Beyer Speed Figure. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, has won seven Eclipse Awards, while his rider, Javier Castellano, has been named leading rider in the country each of the past three years.